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Ryan: So you've looked at business that are big companies, you've examined much larger marketcap type circumstances. Do you feel that that experience has assisted you? Or are we in such, sort of the infancy, that as you mentioned, it is practically simply good sense. You just have to kind of look at it and think rationally about what's going on, and pull the feeling out? You need to pull the feeling out, and there are no traditional metrics that you can take a look at.
Okay. What I can use that I found out from dealing with Wall Street across 3 years, is how to check out people - undefined. I have actually fulfilled 10s of thousands of individuals throughout my career. I've fulfilled insiders; I have actually met fund managers, I have actually satisfied stock promoters, I have actually fulfilled all these different kinds of characters along the way.
So I think that's probably among my super powers, if you will. And if you have actually got a good BS detector, you should listen to it. Okay. You should definitely listen to it. If I'm sitting down and I'm talking with somebody, and they have actually got all the bonifides, but you know, there's simply; it's not agreeing with me, there's something about them that's not sitting well with me.
There are numerous other offers out there to look at. Yeah, there's excessive opportunity. Yeah. And speaking of opportunity, you know, you sort of mentioned at the start, Bitcoin and Ethereum, most individuals have become aware of these two, particularly Bitcoin, since it appears like it's in the news all the time, something or the other.
Have they missed the boat on Bitcoin? Bitcoin is trading almost upwards of $6,000 recently; it's turned up from state $3,000 not too long back, it's quite volatile. Do they kind of await a pullback, or do they simply say, "Okay, I'm going to purchase some Ethereum, I'm going to purchase some Bitcoin, see you in 10 years." You understand? Yeah that's an excellent question.
You can literally use tiny stakes, and change them into life-changing quantities of money. So I think the first action is, get clear on, if I lost all this money tomorrow, if I put it in Bitcoin, I desire to make certain that it's not going to have me begging my parents for hamburger money, and sleeping on their couch.
And then on the very first 50% pullback that you see in Bitcoin, buy the second half. Which way you're not going to get the ideal price, however you're going to get a good price. And after that simply leave it alone. And to your question, is it far too late to purchase Bitcoin? Never.
Today it has about simply under a $100 billion market cap, so it's a 10x from here. undefined. So you put $1,000 in, you turn it into $10,000. I mean, I'll take that all day. A little bit easier in cryptocurrency than getting Apple stock. Appropriate! And you talked about this volatility.
Indicating that Bitcoin has to do with ten times more volatile. And they believe that as it ends up being less and less volatile, it's going to be much easier to really depend on as a currency. Correct. Now, we remain in an age where news, whether you call it FUD, fear, uncertainty, doubt, truly drives the prices of these cryptocurrencies up and down it appears like.
A lot more, to a level, than the stock exchange. Because there are bigger gains and larger drops. Do you feel that the marketcap has to go approximately help control that volatility? So that there's, it's spread out wider? Do you feel that the news has to turn favorable? What do you feel is going to assist reduce that volatility, which in turn will cause more widely accepted usage of an actual currency? It's kind of like the chicken egg thing almost, but there's got to be some point where it shifts ( And it reveals that you actually do comprehend the area asking that concern. So normally the life process of originalities is that it's the speculators and the early adopters that first enter into it, prior to it goes into mass adoption, and after that becomes what we would consider genuine technology, right? Right.
It went from cents to a hundred and modification, and then back to like, five bucks, and now it's got over a half a trillion market cap. Yeah. So what you'll see is a comparable situation with Bitcoin. Now we likewise saw Bitcoin go from cents to $1,200, pull back to $200.
It's now in its expression of entering into its mainstream stage. Now, in order for it to be a currency, you're right, the volatility needs to diminish considerably. And it can't lessen greatly up until it gets really above a trillion market cap. Okay. So the concern is, what takes it to a trillion market cap if it can't be used as a currency? And it will be speculation that gets it there.
Therefore, as institutional cash starts entering into the market, which is what I prepare for will take place in 2018, and I'll tell you why I think that in a minute, that speculation will be self-reinforcing, and it will take Bitcoin to the point where volatility will come way, method, way down, and all of a sudden, it's now something you can utilize legitimately to pay wages and purchase things and actually utilize as a currency - It's more of a speculative car that is likewise a storehouse of worth. Mm-hmm (affirmative). Therefore when you look at, you kind of talked about position sizing and entering in and looking for, I think you discussed a 50% pullback ( In cryptocurrency, I keep in mind not too long back, Ethereum, I feel like it went from $300 to 10 cents or something in a day. That's right. But then, next thing you know, it was back towards $400, and then it's pulled back. So the volatility ranges are rather different. Do you type of think that, 'cause what I'm trying to get at here is, there are individuals who attempt and time the marketplace.
And what I'm trying to figure out is, are you more just put something in, if there's a pullback, put some more in. Yep. If it draws back even further, take a look at your position sizes. If it makes sense, possibly purchase once again. But don't get too captured up in the plus green balance in your account, or the minus red balance, you know? Because- Yep, 100%.
Yep, 100. That is the method to go, due to the fact that we could have one statement tomorrow, and Bitcoin's $25,000, and after that you would have missed it, right? Mm-hmm (affirmative). So get in, get your feet wet. Get going with something that's not going to squash you if you're down 50 or 60% - Do not go put $200,000 in, and you're down 60% tomorrow, and you're all set to leap off a building. Do not do that, that's simply not smart. Be rational, get your feet wet with this innovation. Know that you're not going to get a best print, right? Put your ego aside, toss it out the room, it's got no organization here.
You will see a 50% pullback in Bitcoin eventually. Now we might go to $15,000 initially, before that next 50% pullback. But you will see one. So put your half position on, wait for the very first 50% pullback, put your other position on, and strap in for the trip, 'cause it's going to be awesome.
Yeah. Which leads me to emotion. I trade alternatives myself, also, and for me, stock trading and particularly alternative trading, fits my character profile. I'm really unemotional; I'm disciplined, I try to find the best, and then go into the better. I'm really strategic about it. But the average individual as we understand, is reactive, when it pertains to investing, they wish to buy Amazon when it's now trading over $1,000, and they wish to sell it when it's at $800, and buy it back when it's at $1,200.
And I look at the same challenge with cryptocurrency, other than I see it on a more severe level, because it has an even larger FOMO mentality. Where individuals have this fear of losing out, they think, I could have purchased Bitcoin at pennies, and if I would have bought $100, I 'd have $70 million or whatever, you see these short articles all the time.
That was most likely not great." And I had actually done that several times in these much lower numbers. But back then these were revenues, right? These were real revenues. And who knew that it 'd be $5,000, $6,000, $20,000, whatever. So there is even a few of this internal FOMO of like, what's the next one? Oh, I have actually got to find it.
And beyond position sizing, how do you encourage the folks that you inform about cryptocurrencies to protect themselves from this FOMO, emotional spiral that can occur? Yeah, so again, a great deal of the time, every other week I put out a video, and I talk a lot about rationality, being rational.
On our journey to developing wealth, it's not the government or somebody else or our parents who are holding us back, right? It's all up in here. Due to the fact that money does not care what color you are, it does not matter what school you went to; it doesn't care if you check out well, or if you are great looking, or if you are unsightly.
So we bring all of our own drama to a creation of wealth. So some of the important things that I do to help us secure ourselves from that is diversification, to be humble sufficient to state, "Look, I might recommend an idea that might go to zero." Therefore we require to be diversified, and the other thing that we do is we use something called consistent position sizing.
So I'll give you a prime example. I advised a very, very small cryptocurrency previously this year at 13 cents. And I stated, "Look, if you're a little player, probably put $200 to $400, maybe $500 max in it. And if you're a bigger player, you can put $1000 into it." And so that specific coin went to as high as $50.
Yeah, yeah. Right? So, I'm not going to state that every single concept I take a look at does that. There are some ideas that haven't worked out. But when you have a portfolio of ideas, and you use consistent position sizing, a couple of things occur. One, you're going to get lucky, ideal? You're going to have a couple of trades that are simply amazing.
Even if you have ten ideas with $500 each in, $5,000, for many people, they lose $5,000, if whatever went to zero, yeah, it's gon na draw. It's not enjoyable. But it's not going to put you in the poorhouse, right? You're not going to be sitting beyond Grand Central Station with your hat in your hand asking for burger cash.
Because of the charm here Ryan, you understand I get passionate about this, you've got to forgive me, however the beauty here is we're so early. Mm-hmm (affirmative). We're so early, that we do not need to be that brilliant, right? We have to be bright adequate to have a core portfolio of excellent names, to have rational position sizing, and then be brilliant adequate to do absolutely nothing but wait.